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Economic forecasts - how did they do?

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"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable" the famous economist John Kenneth Galbraith once proclaimed. Indeed, this perception has only ever increased since the profession's failure to anticipate and predict the global financial crisis of 2007/8, as well as underestimating its aftermath. In Britain, the failure of economic forecasting world was once again in the limelight following the EU referendum vote on the 23 June 2016 - principally the surprisingly politicised Treasury prediction that a vote to leave the EU would "push our economy into a recession and lead to an increase in unemployment of around 500,000, GDP would be 3.6% smaller, average real wages would be lower, inflation higher, sterling weaker, house prices would be hit and public borrowing would rise compared with a vote to remain." There was a consensus among economic forecasters that leaving the EU would cause a recession. However, such pessimism surrou
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The good, the bad, and the unknown: David Cameron’s legacy

Today, the 13th of July 2016, David Cameron has finished his last Prime Minister’s Questions, and will no longer be the Prime Minister of the UK after resigning due to the successful Leave vote. The UK will now be in the hands of his Home Secretary, Theresa May. Cameron’s political career started on the 7th of June in 2001, where he assumed office in constituency of Witney. Despite his relatively early arrival, he became leader of the Conservative Party just over four years later in December 2005, replacing Michael Howard. Cameron capitalised on the Great Recession of 2007/8, leading his Party into coalition with Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats. As Prime Minister for just over six years, he oversaw a Coalition, a slim-Conservative majority and two referendums. It therefore begs the question: what is David Cameron’s legacy? The Good Theresa May once famously described the Conservative Party as the ‘Nasty Party’ in 2002, and its negative image continued to fester. David Cameron sough
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Leadsom is not fit to lead some

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Prior to the EU referendum, Andrea Leadsom was an unknown Conservative backbencher elected in 2010, rarely making a sound or movement. She became a rising star in the EU referendum, despite believing remaining in the EU was the best thing for the country in 2013 . She continually  boasted about her CV and 25 years of financial services experience,  and used this a justification for knowledge of financial services and the banking system. Leadsom used to be able to show-off and exaggerate her role in Barings Bank, when it collapsed in 1995. In her blog post in 2009, she claimed to be “running Barclays’ investment team” and “[her] team and [Leadsom] spent the weekend in the office, working for Andrew Buxton and Eddie George, then Governor of the Bank of England.” She has continually described herself as the ‘Financial Institutions Director’ at Barclays. During her time at De Putron Fund Management in 1997-99, she claimed to be the managing director. Between 1999-2009, Leadsom claimed to
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